Fiji Deep Dive - Pool C Favourites?
Huw explains why Fiji are different this time... from behind the sofa...
This is the type up of the deep dive from episode three of the Pirate Rugby Pod, you can find it here on Substack, Spotify or Youtube!
Fiji On the Up
Fiji are in pool C for the World Cup alongside Wales, Australia, Georgia and Portugal. As of 15th August 2023, Fiji have overtaken Wales in the men’s world rugby rankings. They are now only one place behind Australia.
Uh oh.
All Wales fans fear Fiji, they knocked us out in 2007 and inflicted real, tournament altering damage to us in 2015 & 2019. And now they are coming to RWC2023 on the crest of the wave? Fantastic…
Fiji achieved this rise off the back off a crushing Pacific Nations Cup campaign where they put 30+ points on each of their three opponents, two of which they played away from home.
But what make them truly different this time is that rather than having all their players scattered across 4 continents, they now have a club side they can use as a foundation to build their team around: The Drua.
The Arrival of the Drua
The Fijian Drua made their super rugby debut in 2022, a team added to the competition with the purpose of giving a pathway to Fijian players trying to break into the elite game. After a tough first season, they have come on leaps and bounds in 2023, qualifying for the playoffs and cutting their points difference more than in half.
They were still conceding quite a few points - even by Super Rugby standards - they have starting to emerge as a genuinely mid table team and taking wins against even kiwi sides, including the Crusaders!
The main thing the Drua have given the Fiji national team however is not players, but cohesion.
Anyone who talks to me about rugby knows I will not shut up about Ben Darwin and Gain Line analytics. They have used to data to proved that the relationships and partnerships formed through consistent selection over long periods of time is directly related to how a team performs.
Teams know this a coaches select with this logic in mind. New Zealand are based around the Crusaders, Ireland around Leinster, France around Toulouse, England around Saracens. Off-the-shelf cohesion to help mitigate the reduced time period players are together at international level. This problem is particularly acute for tier 2 nations who play less than 30% as many games per world cup cycle than their T1 rivals (Fiji have played 17 games 2020-today, Australia played 15 games in 2022 alone).
Through the Drua, Fiji now have these cohesive partnerships to call on. Here are the starting XVs in all fifteen games they played in this Super Rugby season. Don’t fcus too much on the actual names, look more towards how often the colour changes in each line.
Look at the backline. 12-15 was very near unchanged all season. the half back partnership of Lomani and Tela also got significant time together to build understanding whilst players like Ikanivere and Nasilasila started fourteen and fifteen games respectively. Two thirds of their ‘best’ XV got double figures in appearances. In a fifteen game season, that is significant.
Delightfully, this is being capitalised on by the national coach and former player Simon Raiwalui. 17/33 players in the world cup squad are Drua players. with the afore mentioned combinations mostly being protected.
Now, playing the entire Fijian Drua at the world cup mightn’t be the out-and-out best plan. After all, a team that can’t win Super Rugby probably can’t win the World Cup either. But imagine taking that core of players and sprinkling Nayacalevu, Radradra, Matavesi, Botia and Wainiqolo on it. Players who are experienced playing elite rugby and are stars for some of the biggest club sides in the world. Where are most of those clubs? France. Where is the World Cup being played? it’s all about the extra 1%…
Refining Selection
So far, Raiwalui has been experimenting in selection. in the three PNC games he has selected three different XVs, with only four players involved in all three matchday squads. The second team, who played against Samoa (arguably the hardest game of the campaign) was mostly Drua players.
Any clues so far as top the team that will line up v Wales in a months time? Not really, save for the 4 who played in each game + Nayacalevu being captain. Their final two warmup games are against France (oh my god imagine that!) and Engalnd - who, at the time of writing, are terrible) - so there is plenty of time to learn about them yet. Volavola being dropped for the world cup does leave them with both Drua 10s, though and Islander teams tend to be quite fluid in backline positions anyway (they could quite easily put out a backline of just 13s and it would work fine).
Stars to watch out for? I’m going these four who were try scorers and performed well this summer:
The Omens
So what can stop the Flying Fijians? Depends of you believe in curses. Ever since 2007, Fiji have won just one game in each of the last 3 world cups, including some embarrassing performances in 2011 and a famous loss to Uruguay on 2019. They actually have a worse WC record than island neighbours Samoa.
While results have gone well this year, Fiji have flattered to deceive this WC cycle. Two post-lockdown matches against the All Blacks yielded nasty score lines whilst every T1 nation they have played has put at least 29 points on them. They have only beaten other T2 nations + the Barbarians. Interestingly, however, their record against pool rivals and fellow T2 provocateurs Georgia reads favourably with one draw and one win since the last tournament.
Then there is the small matter of their pool fixtures, which are a case of go early or go home. With Wales up first and Australia up second, Fiji’s world cup could be a s good as over by round two. A one week rest, for them to potentially stew on their own demise, before a game against a no-doubt fired up Georgia might leave them 0-3 with a game against an under fancied but exciting Portugal team who run it from anywhere the only opportunity to save their blushes.
To me, terrifyingly, its all on game one against a Wales team that is SLOWLY finding its feet again under Gatland. If they win that game, all bets are very much off. With the draw the way it is, we could be about to witness History and see a Pacific Island nation reach the semi finals of the world cup for the very first time.
T’rrific…